Statik's Answer to the Ultimate Question of Life

Nissan divulged a pretty startling revelation. Half of the 130,000 odd people who registered on Nissan’s LEAF webpage as being interested in the car own (or have owed) a Toyota Prius, according to Nissan Division VP Al Castignetti.

Mr. Castingenetti reflected on the significance, “That’s a pretty significant signal to us.  It tells us that there is a segment of eco-friendly consumers who are interested in going to the next level. They own a hybrid vehicle. But if the next step is available, they want to take it.”

This huge demographic imbalance might also suggest that a good portion of the initial people interested in the LEAF are true early adopters, that they are not necessarilycommitted to the LEAF itself, but to the fact it will be the first mass produced electric car available to the masses.

It also underscores the theory that the first electric car on the road will reap not only the PR benefit of that accomplishment, but also scoop up a good chunk of sales merely being in existence.

I think we can now conclude that opening up the reservation system and being first out of the gate was a wise move by Nissan.  The next battle is to win the hearts of the people who actually decide to test drive a LEAF at the dealership before they buy, which might not as easy a sale.

…but then again, Nissan may still be the only game in town.

Story originally appeared at Nissan-Leaf.net

Quote: egmCarTech

Not officially yet of course, but thanks to some forced disclosures to protect their intellectual property in China (under a antiquated, nationalistic ‘we are a island’ patent process), some sketches have surfaced showing that the Michigan made Chevrolet Volt, which was given a facelift and then rebranded as a Ampera for Europe will be rebadged again on its way to China…likely to be born again as a Buick.

It is most likely a Buick because that brand has a lot of cachet in China, and is the flagship of General Motors in that country (despite Cadillac being present in the country since 2004). The only other real choice would be for it to launch as a Chevrolet; but it wouldn’t make a lot of sense to have the Chevy logo stuck on the Ampera skin that was meant to distance itself from the look of the Volt in the first place.

It is also unlikely that it will be continued to be marketed as a Opel in China, because Opel has no weight in that market whatsoever, illustrated by that fact that cars such as the Astra and Insignia (which are built in China) are both branded Buicks in China (Excelle and Regal). GM has recently considered expanding Opel’s role in China, but as of now the score in China for auto sales (at least in 2009 )was Buick 447,000 – Opel 3,000.

Additionally, considering the price point will likely exceed $50,000 USD by the time the American made car lands in showrooms in China, it pretty much has to be a Buick.

According to sources, and despite very limited initial production plans (up to 8,000 vehicles in 2011), the Buick (insert name here) will go on sale in China in the first half of 2011. Couple that with plans to launch the Chevy Volt in Canada in mid-2011, the Vauxhell Ampera in the UK and the Opel Ampera in the rest of Europe in late 2011, the Holden Volt in Australia in early 2012, and that is a very full dance card indeed.

Which begs the question. Only 5 brands for the Volt GM? I look forward to ‘new’ Voltec offerings from Wuling and Daewoo any day now. /very ‘old’ GM

Sidenote: Everyone’s favorite GM exec, Susan Docherty, has just resurfaced (again) as vice president in charge of sales and marketing in China (and the many other regions inside GMIO…which account for about half of all of GM’s sales), so perhaps a new ‘Volt dance’ will resurface at the 2011 Beijing auto show in April.

Originally posted at GM-Volt.com

Source (TheTycho.com)

As the days fall off the calendar counting down to when General Motors is expected to start delivering the first Volts into the hands of eager customers, we have been left to wonder about one of the most important decision making factors of the vehicle – the price, and just when we will find out what the price is.

Recent speculation puts that date as far out as October. But regardless of when the actual announcement date rolls around, it begs a more important question; how many sales is GM losing by delaying this announcement and sale of the Volt?

The answer is up to 12,000 and counting. Nissan now has their arms wide open, accepting reservations from anyone who would like to purchase one (or two) of their 100 mile electric cars, the Leaf.

It is obvious there is a huge early demand for electric cars from the group affectionately known as the ‘early adopters,’ and they have been impatiently waiting for a long time…long before the concept of a range extended EV from GM ever existed. To say they will choose to wait even longer for an arguably better platform, while another car goes on sale and hits the market, would be a mistake.

It is a rare day here at GM-Volt.com when you can get through a comment string that doesn’t have someone who wants and prefers a Volt saying that they just can’t wait on GM and they have put in a reservation with Nissan to buy a Leaf, or at the very least intends to lease it, planning to revisit GM’s offerings 3 years later.

I know for myself, I am the same. I will not wait. I will not pass the ‘what is now,’ for the ‘what is coming.’ I will not indefinitely watch as other EVs drive pass me on the roads hoping for GM to deliver. Fortunately for GM in my case, I may very well add a Leaf to the family, and replace a daily driver with a Volt…but realistically this is not going to happen for most other early adopters.

GM never dreamed they would have someone beat them to market, and even though they clearly have decided not to react to the pressure that Nissan has put on them when it comes to scooping up the early adopters, they are still assuming all the business they originally penciled in will still be there on their timeline regardless.

Bob Lutz, in his exit interview with GM-Volt.com was asked just about this subject:

How large do you think the early adopters will be? And what types will they will be. Have you looked at that and studied that?
“I think it is going to be larger than we think. I think every politician in the country and in most other countries is going to want one…everybody who is in show business will want one, I think it will completely displace the Toyota Prius as the vehicle of choice in Hollywood, I think every state governor is going to want one. There is just a enormous latent demand for vehicles to start”

It seems like GM is refusing to believe/acknowledge there is another electric car out there that could scoop up even one sale at all. With Nissan averaging about 500 reservations per day since they put the Leaf out to market, we will never know how many sales GM is losing to them every day, but make no mistake, sales are being lost.

If I didn’t know better, I would say they don’t care. That they don’t have any interest in cultivating a deep order book…and that might just be the case.

Story was originally published at GM-Volt.com

There has been much discussion over the past three years about the battery of the Chevrolet Volt. We watched LG Chem and A123 compete for almost two years to win the affections of GM to supply them with cells; a battle eventually won by LG in January of 2009. Then the discussion switched to the actual cost of the cells inside the battery pack that would be built by GM themselves in Michigan.

For a time, the number thrown about was $1,000 per kWh, until Jon Lauckner (GM Vice President) was asked about this price point estimate, to which he responded that GM was paying “many hundreds of dollars less” than a thousand.

Then a study put out by Deutsche Bank in early March of this year seemed to pinpoint exactly what that ‘many hundreds’ less worked out to be, citing the average cell price per kWh in 2009 was $650. It also put out forward looking estimates of a 25% reduction in that cost over 5 years, and 50% over 10 ($325 per kWh in 2020), with some companies seeing bids at around $450 for 2012.

Adding to GM’s cost of the cells is the fabrication of the pack itself, along with the advanced temperature management system, which GM is doing themselves at a assembly plant in Brownstown Township in Michigan.

What had been forgotten over time was whether or not the initial decision to purchase 3rd party cells over producing them themselves was a good one. It has long been GM’s stance to produce a very small quantity of cars at first, then bring on new production (and eventually models) as demand is validated. Obviously, by consciously making a decision to limit your exposure to this new segment in case of failure, buying 3rd party cells seemed like the prudent way to go.

In a recent interview by the Times of London, Nissan senior vice president, Andy Palmer (who is responsible for the company’s global EV strategy), dropped a bomb on the rest of the industry, by being the first to put a dollar figure on the cost of the battery, by saying the Leaf’s battery costs £6,000 ($8,950 USD) to produce right now.

At 24 kWh per pack, that comes to around $370 per kWh, out the door, finished product. This is quite simply a stunning revelation, and Mr. Palmer was not done there…

…story continues at GM-Volt.com

This week in Dudenhofen Germany, Opel gave assurances that the Ampera was “on track” for production in the fall of 2011, hinted at pricing, and once again opened the door to a Europe-based production facility for the vehicle in the short term.

Stateside, the very first pre-production Ampera came to life as it rolled off the line in Warren, Michigan on Friday April 23rd. Andrew Farrah, who is also Vehicle Chief Engineer for the Ampera, marked the occasion by also saying, “We’re right on target for producing the Ampera for European markets later next year.”

The Ampera is the sister car to the Chevy Volt for Europe, and therefore it will only travel in kilometers; it has a range of “up to” 60 of them on electric power, and over 500 with the aid of a small gas engine once the 16 kWh battery is depleted.

At some point during the press junket nefarious ‘company sources’ reared their ugly head again and said the Ampera will likely cost about €40,000…or as we are fond of expressing prices here at GM-Volt, $53,000 in US dollars.

To be fair you have to allow for a number of factors to get…

Story Continues at GM-Volt.com

It is hard to believe how far they have come. Just four and a half years ago Aptera (then Accelerated Composites) introduced us to a three wheel, 330 MPG hybrid concept, priced at around $20,000. At the time of the announcement, the prototype was “approximately half completed,” but would be fully completed in a couple months, with production up to 1,500 cars in the first year, and full production running in 2 to 3 years.

Well, I guess they haven’t come that far after all.

Aptera starting taking customer’s deposits long ago, promising deliveries in late 2008. When that didn’t happen, they reassured customers that everything was still OK with the company, but production had been pushed back to October 2009. They also noted that customer’s deposits were safely tucked in a escrow account, fully refundable if requested. However, they were also offering customers the ‘opportunity’ to convert to a non-refundable deposit (that they could use as they pleased) in exchange for some future incentives discounts. Lucky day!

As we know, no vehicles were produced by October 2009, and Aptera, possibly punch drunk from missed deadlines at the time, just issued a more ambiguous ‘it is coming sometime in 2010′ release. That is until now. Finally, those locked in deposit holders will get a date they can expect their cars! Right? Nope.

Production is now scheduled for…

Story Continues At GM-Volt.com

On Wednesday GM released its ‘fresh start’/GAAP compliant results, and while this report is of interest for many people anxious to find out just how ‘new’ GM is doing, the results have been prepared by GM with a much different intention from releases in the past.

The very first line of the chart set accompanying the results from GM said it all, “Building the Foundation to Go Public”…at least it used it. Shortly after GM put out the press chart, the most important statement in the whole release disappeared, now there is just a empty space with no indication of what you are about to read.

That statement really got to the heart of the matter. The report itself was not intended to wow anyone, nor is it intended to convince anyone the company is A-OK right now, it is not prepared with a focus on the ’spin’…this report is for taking out the trash.

GM has looked around for anything lying around the Ren Center that could be bad for the bottom line in upcoming quarters, or that could appear as a negative in the future, and they have put it in here. ‘One time’ items are running wild, and reasonable…

Story continues at GM-Volt.com…

It was only early October when Susan Docherty took over the role of VP of sales and marketing. However, due to CEO Ed Whitacre’s intense desire to quickly improve sales at GM, and the lack of any such result over the past 4 or 5 months, half her title (sales) now belongs to Mark Reuss, who already has the title of President of GM North America.

For February 2010, GM reported a sales increase of only 11.4%, and sales were down compared to the previous month. The increase is considered a disappointment because it was up against a very gloomy 2009 result (-53%). Go inside those numbers further, and it is hard to miss the return of the fleet sales, which are notorious for having very low margins, up 114%.

Elsewhere in the industry, Ford was up 43%, and for the first time in over a decade sold more cars than GM. Toyota, which had a very bad monthly publicly, was the only automaker to report a loss, but suffered a less than expected 8.9% drop off. (6% less than January) Other notables, Honda and Hyundai both improved in the low double digits (13%/11%)…and apparently Chrysler is still selling automobiles out there somewhere as well.

Part of the weakness in the sales, and ultimately the profitability at GM, is at Cadillac…or at least from traditional Cadillac. If it were not for a rebadged Equinox, masquerading as the new SRX, while stealing sales from Chevy and GMC, Caddy would have been off 20%. The CTS, DTS, and STS were all down for the month. (The ‘new’ SRX was up 541% on 3,542 units sold)

As a solution to this problem, GM announced sweeping new changes in the way Cadillac does business and is accelerating new products to market the dimissal, or rather the demotion of Cadillac general manager Bryan Nesbitt, as well as a plethora of other management changes elsewhere in the company. (Warning do not click the link, lest you be sucked into the vortex of shakeup cliches)

Of interest, Bryan Nesbitt came to GM as a Bob Lutz hire from Chrysler (he was the designer of the PT Cruiser), and had found his star rising (along with Bob’s) during GM’s recent troubles. It would seem that without Lutz’s presence at the company, he has been pushed to the side somewhat.

Mark Reuss explained the need for changes this way, “It’s become extremely clear to me since taking this role that there is a better way to structure this organization.” It would seem that Mark Reuss has quickly become a force behind Ed Whitacre’s leadership, and is reshaping the company as he sees fit.

For what it is worth, I think Mark is the finally the right guy at the right time for GM. Now if they could just find a way to get rid of the Opel mess, stop with all the drama at the executive level, and get on with the business of making and selling cars for a profit, that would be fine with me too.

(Article did not appear at gm-volt.com…busy week)

This is one of those times when saying, ‘I could do better than that myself’ actually applies:

The Olympics are in my home country so I figured I should have at least one post about it before they were done. /best I can do

(post #18 of 712,737 that have nothing to do with the Volt)

How often has the car buying public been subjected to a headline like “Big Auto Company Introduces it Fabulous Concept Electric Show Car With 22″ Wheels…That Is Coming Soon-ish,” only to have that be the last word we ever hear on it? Fifty? A Hundred Times?

Personally, when I spot a new concept EV, I think to myself, ‘it looks like somebody had a couple thousand pounds of modelling clay getting old somewhere and this is the end result. Or perhaps there was just too many design interns last summer, and they didn’t know how to keep them all busy.’

I doubt the thought of, ‘I wonder what the demand for this car will be once they start producing it,’ crosses many people’s minds. That is of course until recently.

With GM currently ramping up for production of the Volt at its Hamtramck facility in Michigan, and Nissan on the cusp of actually taking orders in a few weeks, we can now focus somewhat on the acceptance of electric vehicles themselves once they hit the market.

Given the Volt’s very low initial production levels (8,000-10,000 for the first year), it is assured that it will be a…

Story continues at GM-Volt.com